Chances Are
Chances, odds, probabilities, all the same thing. What are the chances of such-and-such happening? A question often asked of a countless variety of such-and-suches. Many times the answer is a billion in one, or some other very large number, and we rejoice reasoning that the particular bad such-and-such could not possibly happen to us in our lifetime.
Clearly, we do not understand how probablity works. Say the odds of something happening are 100 to 1. Assuming it is something we can control, we figure we can do whatever it is 100 times before the undesirable (or desirable) result occurs. That is a bad assumption even if we knew when the last occurance was. Something having one chance in 100 of occuring does not necessarily mean that there will be a neat 99 non occurances between occurances.
The event could occur at any one of 100 opportunities between the first and the last.
So the next time you hear someone giving you a million to one odds on something happening, that particular something could still happen tomorrow. Or even later this afternoon.